Your observation that mortality rates across US states were already negatively correlated in 2020 with subsequent vaccination rates is valuable, and complements similar observations (concerning *excess* mortality rates) I and others have made for inter-country comparisons:
Note that the implications of such observations for estimating the net effect of Covid vaccinations remain controversial.
As for the rest of your analysis, focusing on temporal correlations between vaccination and mortality, I am not entirely sure I understand what you are doing, so it would help to have things written down more formally and completely. But, for example, the link to Pantazatos and Seligmann, 2021 seems to be broken: ResearchGate tells me that the DOI has been removed by the author.
Thanks, good catch. The correct DOI is 10.13140/RG.2.2.28257.43366/1 and I corrected it in the main text. Thanks for raising the issues with the Neil et. al. I will try to take a look when I can.
Possibly. If you can show/demonstrate a confounding factor please share the link. Just like all things in science, this data should be take into account along with multiple other independent lines of evidence to see if they converge. Also see this post about Bradford-Hill criteria for causation being met: https://jessicar.substack.com/p/the-bradford-hill-criteria
be aware trumps transition team plan to hit the ground running on day one by taking america out of the world health organisation..for confirmation and the details checkout an article in the uk newspaper the financial times dated december 22nd 2024...also checkout and read carefully a petition at citizengo.org deal a fatal blow to the pandemic treaty tell trump to exit the WHO now
Thanks for sharing. I have not looked at Medicare data. Are you saying the Medicare data is now publicly available after Kirsch published the spreadsheets? I will see if I can take a look when I have more time later this month.
How do you know the increase was in vaccinated people? In the Czech Republic the Delta wave only peaked around November to December 2021. But if you look at ages 40-59, vaccinated people had almost no increase in ASMR during the Delta wave, but the ASMR of unvaccinated people almost doubled between September 2021 and the Delta peak: sars2.net/czech.html#Daily_deaths_and_vaccine_doses_by_age_group.
In the US in August to September 2021, ages 65 and above accounted for about 57% of all excess deaths (when I calculated the expected number of deaths by doing a linear regression of age-specific CMR in August to September of 2010-2019 and I multiplied a projection of the trend by the population estimates of each age):
Very interesting. My only thought is that population density (easier spread in more dense areas) may be an important factor in some of this, especially the vaccine doses vs. Covid cases. But even if it is, it would mean that vaccines made little/no difference because the graphs may have looked similar with or without vaccination.
Good point. That is another reason to including prior years deaths and cases for the same month as it would control for differences in population densities across states.
My whole issue with this is we don't and never really will know how many true Covid infections there were due to the flawed testing methods. What we do know for sure is the differences before and after they rolled out the jabs. Here is a quick article with a graph that shows one thing I am talking about. Here is what it says.
Disability data hit a new high in November 2024. The prior high point was in June 2023, but November saw an increase of 787,000 new cases over the previous month of October. Since 2021, there has been an increase of 4.8 million cases.
Dude, the indoctrinated Do Not Base reason upon graphs, confessions, exposed military laws, pharmaceutical debacle, Polio Exposed as Scam, video (even exposed doctors discussing harvesting baby parts), much less “vaxx” facts.
Fascinating to note the vaccine doses vs. residual deaths in the first graph. The large blue states all lie below the trend line, while almost all the red states lie above. Does this lend credence to the theory that hot batches were assiduously shipped to red states? That theory was raised a couple years ago; now the numbers may bear it out. Time to cross-check with VAERS and get to the bottom of this.
I'm looking for an interview (or article) in which (I believe) Harvey Risch says that the doses of hydroxychloroquine used in the trials were much too high, possibly ten times too high.
I think the only correct data is from Florida, hence the Florida data being the outlier. DeSantis took on the corrupt State Health administration state, appointed the great Surgeon General Ladapo, and real outcomes were assessed.
Re: " comorbidities that increase risk of death from COVID-19."
The narrative from the mainstream media, the government, the NIH, CDC etc. was that those WITH comorbidities should be the first in line to be vaxxecuted. Far too many people have lost the ability to proactively take care of themselves. The attitude is that there is no need to eat right, get enough rest, etc. when Big Pharma can be relied upon to supply us with all the pills necessary to cheat on our diet, sleep patterns, etc.
Here's a prime example: Perhaps one of the most addictive substances on this planet is sugar. A couple grams is more than enough to overwhelm the liver and yet the average American consumes over 125 lbs. a year. The morbid obesity and chronic inflammation is a gold mine for Big Harma which along with the AMA, the American Cancer Society, The American Heart Association etc. have all become agnostic when it comes to acknowledging the connection between sugar and chronic disease.
Anyone who has been placed into a CT/PET scan might want to ask how a radioactive dye is able to coalesce around cancerous cells or tumors. The simple fact is that it is mixed with glucose. Cancer cells uptake of blood sugar is significantly higher than normal healthy cells. This shows a clear correlation between sugar and cancer growth, but those who are terminally addicted to sugar will never consider reducing their sugar intake when they can take fenbendazole which severely constricts tubules in cancerous cells preventing them from consuming sugar. Boobus Americanus wants the latest "hack" or whatever short cut they can utilize to allow them to sustain their addictions.
Over and over I see people gorging on sugar while their limbs are amputated one after the other. It's completely insane and suicidal which is why one more shot to put them out of their misery isn't as tragic as it is pathetic. It reminds me of that scene where Jesus is about to raise Lazarus, but begins weeping. Sure, he may be upset about losing his friend, but he's about to raise him from the dead so I think what he's really doing is weeping over the sad state of affairs in this fallen, hopelessly broken world. This is not how things are supposed to be.
We're not supposed to be hooked on highly processed, sugary, greasy by products, 500 channels of cable narcotics, technological gadgets that employ algorithms explicitly designed to addict users as a means to gain higher profits while turning us all into a horde of spineless, mindless zombies. Those who are don't have a chance and they don't care. That's how strong addiction is today, and the powers that should not be know it.
I have recently shown that the specific claims made in the paper of Neil et al regarding misclassification are almost entirely meritless:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/387220055_A_DETAILED_ANALYSIS_OF_CLAIMS_OF_MISCATEGORIZATION_BIAS_IN_STUDIES_OF_COVID-19_VACCINE_EFFECTIVENESS
Your observation that mortality rates across US states were already negatively correlated in 2020 with subsequent vaccination rates is valuable, and complements similar observations (concerning *excess* mortality rates) I and others have made for inter-country comparisons:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379815723_EXCESS_MORTALITY_AND_THE_EFFECT_OF_THE_COVID-19_VACCINES_PART_2_GLOBAL_DATA
Note that the implications of such observations for estimating the net effect of Covid vaccinations remain controversial.
As for the rest of your analysis, focusing on temporal correlations between vaccination and mortality, I am not entirely sure I understand what you are doing, so it would help to have things written down more formally and completely. But, for example, the link to Pantazatos and Seligmann, 2021 seems to be broken: ResearchGate tells me that the DOI has been removed by the author.
Thanks, good catch. The correct DOI is 10.13140/RG.2.2.28257.43366/1 and I corrected it in the main text. Thanks for raising the issues with the Neil et. al. I will try to take a look when I can.
Correlation is NOT necessarily causation.
The graphs reflect a sociological, economic, overall poor health EPI-phenomenon
Possibly. If you can show/demonstrate a confounding factor please share the link. Just like all things in science, this data should be take into account along with multiple other independent lines of evidence to see if they converge. Also see this post about Bradford-Hill criteria for causation being met: https://jessicar.substack.com/p/the-bradford-hill-criteria
I was referring not to your own analyses, but rather to the KFF claimed inverse correlation between vaccination and deaths, .
Please get in touch about publishing this as a formal, reviewed esearch letter here http://publichealthpolicyjournal.com- JLWPhD
be aware trumps transition team plan to hit the ground running on day one by taking america out of the world health organisation..for confirmation and the details checkout an article in the uk newspaper the financial times dated december 22nd 2024...also checkout and read carefully a petition at citizengo.org deal a fatal blow to the pandemic treaty tell trump to exit the WHO now
Excellent, spiro as usual. Best, Marc
You should write this up and publish it, if possible. Quite interesting.
Kirsch had a source at HHS who gave him data from Medicare that is not publicly available. Kirsch has published two spreadsheets of the Medicare data which both show that during the Delta wave there was almost no increase in deaths among vaccinated people: sars2.net/rootclaim.html#Post_by_Spiro_Pantazatos_for_mortality_by_state_during_the_Delta_wave.
Thanks for sharing. I have not looked at Medicare data. Are you saying the Medicare data is now publicly available after Kirsch published the spreadsheets? I will see if I can take a look when I have more time later this month.
Medicare is OLD people. The increase in death during delta were vaccinated working age people. so medicare is consistent with previous claims.
How do you know the increase was in vaccinated people? In the Czech Republic the Delta wave only peaked around November to December 2021. But if you look at ages 40-59, vaccinated people had almost no increase in ASMR during the Delta wave, but the ASMR of unvaccinated people almost doubled between September 2021 and the Delta peak: sars2.net/czech.html#Daily_deaths_and_vaccine_doses_by_age_group.
In the US in August to September 2021, ages 65 and above accounted for about 57% of all excess deaths (when I calculated the expected number of deaths by doing a linear regression of age-specific CMR in August to September of 2010-2019 and I multiplied a projection of the trend by the population estimates of each age):
us=fread("http://sars2.net/f/uspopdeadmonthly.csv")
us=us[month%in%8:9,.(dead=sum(dead),pop=sum(pop)),.(age,year)]
base=us[year%in%2010:2019,.(base=predict(lm(dead/pop~year),.(year=2021))),age]
a=merge(us[year==2021],base)[,base:=base*pop]
a[age>=65,sum(dead)-sum(base)]/a[,sum(dead)-sum(base)] # 0.568729
Very interesting. My only thought is that population density (easier spread in more dense areas) may be an important factor in some of this, especially the vaccine doses vs. Covid cases. But even if it is, it would mean that vaccines made little/no difference because the graphs may have looked similar with or without vaccination.
Good point. That is another reason to including prior years deaths and cases for the same month as it would control for differences in population densities across states.
...up to 47% of American US adults still don’t think there is a link between the COVID vaccine and a significant number of unexplained deaths.
Meaning 53% do. Is that not enough?
Not really. For something like this, you need a plurality, not a simple majority. Hence, 66%, not 51%.
My whole issue with this is we don't and never really will know how many true Covid infections there were due to the flawed testing methods. What we do know for sure is the differences before and after they rolled out the jabs. Here is a quick article with a graph that shows one thing I am talking about. Here is what it says.
Disability data hit a new high in November 2024. The prior high point was in June 2023, but November saw an increase of 787,000 new cases over the previous month of October. Since 2021, there has been an increase of 4.8 million cases.
https://open.substack.com/pub/drtenpenny/p/fast-facts-friday-c33?r=1qdxoh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Dude, the indoctrinated Do Not Base reason upon graphs, confessions, exposed military laws, pharmaceutical debacle, Polio Exposed as Scam, video (even exposed doctors discussing harvesting baby parts), much less “vaxx” facts.
Fascinating to note the vaccine doses vs. residual deaths in the first graph. The large blue states all lie below the trend line, while almost all the red states lie above. Does this lend credence to the theory that hot batches were assiduously shipped to red states? That theory was raised a couple years ago; now the numbers may bear it out. Time to cross-check with VAERS and get to the bottom of this.
Good stuff. Thanks
I'm looking for an interview (or article) in which (I believe) Harvey Risch says that the doses of hydroxychloroquine used in the trials were much too high, possibly ten times too high.
I'd like a link to it if possible.
I think the only correct data is from Florida, hence the Florida data being the outlier. DeSantis took on the corrupt State Health administration state, appointed the great Surgeon General Ladapo, and real outcomes were assessed.
Re: " comorbidities that increase risk of death from COVID-19."
The narrative from the mainstream media, the government, the NIH, CDC etc. was that those WITH comorbidities should be the first in line to be vaxxecuted. Far too many people have lost the ability to proactively take care of themselves. The attitude is that there is no need to eat right, get enough rest, etc. when Big Pharma can be relied upon to supply us with all the pills necessary to cheat on our diet, sleep patterns, etc.
Here's a prime example: Perhaps one of the most addictive substances on this planet is sugar. A couple grams is more than enough to overwhelm the liver and yet the average American consumes over 125 lbs. a year. The morbid obesity and chronic inflammation is a gold mine for Big Harma which along with the AMA, the American Cancer Society, The American Heart Association etc. have all become agnostic when it comes to acknowledging the connection between sugar and chronic disease.
Anyone who has been placed into a CT/PET scan might want to ask how a radioactive dye is able to coalesce around cancerous cells or tumors. The simple fact is that it is mixed with glucose. Cancer cells uptake of blood sugar is significantly higher than normal healthy cells. This shows a clear correlation between sugar and cancer growth, but those who are terminally addicted to sugar will never consider reducing their sugar intake when they can take fenbendazole which severely constricts tubules in cancerous cells preventing them from consuming sugar. Boobus Americanus wants the latest "hack" or whatever short cut they can utilize to allow them to sustain their addictions.
Over and over I see people gorging on sugar while their limbs are amputated one after the other. It's completely insane and suicidal which is why one more shot to put them out of their misery isn't as tragic as it is pathetic. It reminds me of that scene where Jesus is about to raise Lazarus, but begins weeping. Sure, he may be upset about losing his friend, but he's about to raise him from the dead so I think what he's really doing is weeping over the sad state of affairs in this fallen, hopelessly broken world. This is not how things are supposed to be.
We're not supposed to be hooked on highly processed, sugary, greasy by products, 500 channels of cable narcotics, technological gadgets that employ algorithms explicitly designed to addict users as a means to gain higher profits while turning us all into a horde of spineless, mindless zombies. Those who are don't have a chance and they don't care. That's how strong addiction is today, and the powers that should not be know it.